The present disclosure relates generally to the field of system prediction and control. More particularly, the present disclosure relates to prediction and control of systems such as wind turbines, wind farms and/or other systems related to weather.
Wind power has emerged as a primary source of renewable energy. However, the wind power industry faces challenges in the area of turbine reliability. Some of these challenges are related to the high structural loads in the drive train of the wind turbines and the difficulty in predicting the electrical power output. The structural loads and related failure states may contribute to equipment manufacturers offering short warranties (e.g., two year warranties) after which wind developers and power companies may expend significant resources to keep the turbines operational. Further, the difficulty in predicting wind turbine power (i.e., electrical power) output due to the variability of wind as an energy source may cause power companies to maintain reserve sources of electrical power (e.g., spinning but not providing power to the electrical grid).
Wind turbines have certain wind speed limits at which they can successfully operate. Wind turbines have upper wind speed limits and turbulence levels above which they may sustain significant or catastrophic damage. Wind turbines also have lower wind speed limits below which the turbines cannot operate. Many geographical areas rich in wind resources are also areas where violent frontal weather, with attendant thunderstorms, microburst, wind shear, and icing conditions, occur.